Eight playoffs in 12 years. That's not a trend — that's a phenomenon.
The WM Phoenix Open has become synonymous with dramatic extra-hole finishes, and Sunday's playoff between Chris Gotterup and Hideki Matsuyama only added to a legacy that has turned TPC Scottsdale into golf's most reliable purveyor of overtime drama.
Since 2015, no PGA Tour event has produced more playoff finishes than the WM Phoenix Open. While other tournaments occasionally go to sudden death, the desert classic has made it almost routine, creating an expectation among fans that when they tune in on Sunday afternoon, they better clear their evening schedules.
"It's gotten to the point where people almost expect a playoff here," said Scottie Scheffler, who won two of those eight playoffs (2022 and 2023). "The course sets up for it, the field is always stacked, and the conditions are usually perfect. It's a recipe for bunched leaderboards and close finishes."
Let's walk through the history of this remarkable run of extra-hole drama:
2026: Chris Gotterup def. Hideki Matsuyama
The latest chapter in the playoff saga saw Gotterup claim his second victory in three starts to begin the 2026 season. After Matsuyama's drive found the water on the first playoff hole, Gotterup sealed the win with a birdie. The finish was the eighth playoff in 12 years, cementing the tournament's reputation for dramatic conclusions.
2024: Sahith Theegala def. Xander Schauffele, Adam Svensson
Theegala claimed his first PGA Tour victory in a three-man playoff that lasted four holes. The Indian-American star outlasted Schauffele and Svensson with consistent play on the par-5 18th, making pars on the first two playoff holes before finally converting a birdie on the fourth trip down 18.
2023: Scottie Scheffler def. Patrick Cantlay
Scheffler successfully defended his title from the previous year with a birdie on the first playoff hole. The world No. 1 showed nerves of steel, sticking his approach to 12 feet and rolling in the putt while Cantlay made par. It was Scheffler's fourth win in six starts during a dominant stretch.
2022: Scottie Scheffler def. Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele
In one of the most memorable playoffs in tournament history, Scheffler claimed his first WM Phoenix Open title in a three-man sudden death showdown. The then-world No. 3 made birdie on the third playoff hole to outlast Cantlay and Schauffele, launching a streak where he won four times in six starts and ascended to world No. 1.
2021: Brooks Koepka def. Xander Schauffele, Kyoung-Hoon Lee
Koepka's return to form was announced with a victory in another three-man playoff. The four-time major champion hadn't won on the PGA Tour in over a year but showed his championship mettle by making birdie on the first playoff hole while Schauffele and Lee made pars.
2020: Webb Simpson def. Tony Finau
Simpson's victory over Finau in a two-man playoff was decided on the first extra hole. The 2012 U.S. Open champion made a clutch birdie while Finau's putt to extend the playoff slid by the hole. It was Simpson's second WM Phoenix Open title, having previously won in 2013.
2019: Rickie Fowler def. Branden Grace
Fowler's popular victory came in a playoff against South African Branden Grace. The finish was particularly dramatic as Fowler had to make a long birdie putt on the 72nd hole just to force the playoff, then repeated the heroics in sudden death to claim the trophy.
2015: Brooks Koepka def. Hideki Matsuyama, Bubba Watson
The run of recent playoffs began with Koepka's breakthrough victory in a three-man showdown. The future four-time major champion was still establishing himself on tour but showed his potential by outlasting Matsuyama and Watson with a birdie on the first playoff hole.
The question that begs to be answered: What is it about TPC Scottsdale's Stadium Course that produces so many playoffs?
The answer, according to players and course experts, is multifaceted.
Course Setup and Design
TPC Scottsdale's Stadium Course, while not considered among the tour's most difficult layouts, offers a unique blend of scoring opportunities and potential pitfalls. The par-71 layout features two reachable par-5s on the back nine (holes 13 and 15) and a driveable par-4 at the 17th, giving players multiple chances to make birdies down the stretch.
"The course rewards aggressive play," said course architect Tom Weiskopf before his passing. "You can make a lot of birdies out there if you're willing to take some risks. But those same risk-reward holes can bite you if you're not careful."
The scoring balance creates a scenario where players can make up ground quickly with birdies, but bogeys are equally impactful. This tends to keep the leaderboard bunched, with multiple players reaching the final holes with a realistic chance to win.
Weather and Conditions
The tournament's spot on the calendar — early February in Arizona — plays a significant role in the playoff frequency. Conditions are typically benign, with minimal wind, moderate temperatures, and firm-but-receptive greens.
"You get perfect weather almost every year," said 2023 champion Scottie Scheffler. "No rain, no wind, just sunshine and 70-degree temperatures. That allows guys to be really aggressive and go low."
When weather isn't a factor and the course setup is favorable, scoring tends to be low. And when scoring is low, the leaderboard gets bunched. And when the leaderboard is bunched, playoffs become more likely.
Field Quality
The WM Phoenix Open's designation as a Signature Event (formerly known as an elevated or designated event) means it attracts the strongest possible fields. When you put the world's best players on a course that rewards aggressive play in perfect conditions, tight finishes become almost inevitable.
"This tournament is basically a major in terms of field strength," said Justin Thomas, who finished T13 this year. "You've got every top player in the world here, and they're all playing really well. That makes it incredibly competitive."
The high level of competition means that any player who gets hot can contend, and with so many talented players bunched near the top of the leaderboard, someone is bound to post a number that forces others to match it.
The Pressure of the Atmosphere
The unique atmosphere at TPC Scottsdale — with massive crowds, particularly at the famous 16th hole — can affect players in different ways. Some thrive on the energy, while others find it distracting. This can lead to unexpected swings in momentum and contribute to the bunched leaderboards that often result in playoffs.
"The crowd here is unlike anything else in golf," said Hideki Matsuyama. "It can pump you up or it can rattle you. Either way, it's a factor in how the tournament plays out."
To put the WM Phoenix Open's playoff frequency in perspective, consider that most PGA Tour events see a playoff roughly once every 5-7 years. Some tournaments have gone decades without a playoff, while others might see one every few years.
The Players Championship, often considered the tour's fifth major, has had just five playoffs in its 50-year history. The Memorial Tournament, another prestigious event, has seen playoffs in about 15% of its editions. Even major championships see playoffs relatively rarely — the Masters has had just three playoffs in the last 20 years.
Yet here's the WM Phoenix Open with eight playoffs in 12 years — a rate of 67%. That's not just an outlier; it's a complete statistical anomaly.
"I've never seen anything like it," said PGA Tour stats guru Justin Ray. "The probability of having this many playoffs in such a short time span is astronomically low. There's clearly something about this specific tournament that creates the perfect conditions for extra holes."
Each playoff has produced its own memorable moments, but a few stand out:
Rickie Fowler's Long Birdie (2019): Fowler had to make a 25-foot birdie putt on the 72nd hole just to force the playoff, then did it again in sudden death to win. The roar from the crowd when the second putt dropped was deafening.
Brooks Koepka's Statement (2015): Koepka was still relatively unknown when he won his first PGA Tour event in playoff over Matsuyama and Watson. The victory announced his arrival as a future star and presaged his later major championship success.
Scottie Scheffler's Back-to-Back (2022-23): Scheffler's wins in consecutive years, both in playoffs, cemented his status as the world's best player. The 2022 victory was particularly sweet, as it came during a stretch where he won four times in six starts.
Chris Gotterup's Bomb (2026): Gotterup's 360-yard drive in the playoff, carrying a 340-yard bunker, was one of the most impressive shots of the year and sealed his second victory in three starts.
One interesting subplot in the playoff history is Xander Schauffele's recurring role as the bridesmaid. The Olympic gold medalist has been in three WM Phoenix Open playoffs (2021, 2022, and 2024) and lost all three.
"I've got to figure out how to close these things," Schauffele said after losing the 2024 playoff. "I keep putting myself in position, but I haven't been able to get it done in extra holes here. Maybe next year."
Patrick Cantlay has also struggled in WM Phoenix Open playoffs, losing to Scheffler in both 2022 and 2023. The two-time playoff runner-up has otherwise had a stellar career but can't seem to crack the code in Arizona.
The playoff frequency has become part of the WM Phoenix Open's identity. Along with the raucous 16th hole and the party atmosphere, the expectation of a playoff finish has made the tournament must-watch television.
"People plan their Sunday afternoons around this tournament," said CBS Sports producer Lance Barrow. "They know there's a good chance it's going to extra holes, so they stick around. It's become a real event."
The playoffs have also contributed to some of the tournament's most iconic moments. The images of players celebrating victories on the 18th green in front of massive Sunday crowds have become synonymous with the WM Phoenix Open brand.
Tournament officials and the Thunderbirds organization that runs the event are well aware of the playoff trend, but they insist they're not deliberately setting up the course to create ties.
"We're not trying to manufacture playoffs," said Thunderbirds Tournament Chairman Jerry Colangelo. "We set the course up to be fair but challenging, and the playoffs are just a byproduct of great players making great shots in great conditions."
The pin placements for the final round are typically aggressive but fair, rewarding good shots while punishing poor ones. The rough is kept at a manageable height, and the greens are fast but not unreasonable.
"It's a really well-balanced setup," said course superintendent Justin York. "We want guys to be able to make birdies if they hit good shots, but we also want to protect par on certain holes. It creates a nice mix that keeps things interesting."
The obvious question is whether the WM Phoenix Open will continue to produce playoffs at this remarkable rate. Statistical regression would suggest that eventually, the tournament will see more outright victories without extra holes.
But given the factors that contribute to the playoff frequency — course setup, weather, field strength, atmosphere — there's no reason to think the trend will end anytime soon.
"I'd be shocked if we don't have a playoff here in the next few years," said Scheffler. "Everything about this tournament lends itself to close finishes. It's just become part of what makes this event special."
The betting markets seem to agree. Oddsmakers now offer prop bets specifically on whether the WM Phoenix Open will go to a playoff, with the "yes" option typically around even money — far shorter odds than any other tour event.
From a pure statistical standpoint, the WM Phoenix Open's playoff frequency is remarkable. Using historical data from other tour events, statisticians have calculated that the probability of any single tournament having eight playoffs in 12 years is less than 2%.
"It's a true outlier," said sports statistician Jeff Sagarin. "When you account for all the variables — course setup, weather, field strength — you'd still expect maybe three or four playoffs in that span, not eight. It's genuinely unusual."
Some have suggested that the playoff frequency might be due to variance — essentially, a statistical fluke that will eventually regress to the mean. Others believe there's something intrinsic about the tournament that creates playoff conditions.
"I think it's a bit of both," said PGA Tour data analyst Sean Zak.
"There's definitely some luck involved, but the course and conditions clearly create an environment where playoffs are more likely than normal. It's not purely random."
As the 2026 WM Phoenix Open joined the playoff pantheon, it added another chapter to a story that has become central to the tournament's identity. Future generations will look back at this era and marvel at the sheer frequency of extra-hole drama that unfolded in the Arizona desert.
For the players, the playoff trend means that when they arrive at TPC Scottsdale, they come prepared for the possibility of sudden death. For the fans, it means sticking around through Sunday evening has become standard practice.
And for the tournament itself, the playoff frequency has become a defining characteristic — along with the 16th hole, the party atmosphere, and the charitable mission — that sets the WM Phoenix Open apart from every other event on the PGA Tour calendar.
"This tournament is special for so many reasons," said Chris Gotterup, the 2026 champion. "But the fact that it so often comes down to a playoff just adds to the drama and excitement. It's what makes this place magical."
Eight playoffs in 12 years. A phenomenon indeed. And if history is any guide, the 2027 edition will likely add to that total.
After all, at the WM Phoenix Open, playoffs aren't just possible — they're expected.
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