CJ Carr Becomes the Heisman Betting Favorite After Notre Dame Beats Miami, Ahead of Darian Mensah and Jeremiah Smith

One Saturday night in South Bend rewrote the Heisman Trophy race. CJ Carr went 29 of 40 for 319 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions in Notre Dame's 31-24 win over No. 1 Miami on Nov. 7, and by Tuesday the junior quarterback had moved to the top of the betting board.

ESPN's weekly Heisman column, published Nov. 10, named Carr its Week 10 Heisman of the Week and noted that with four weeks left before voting, he is now the betting favorite. The DraftKings odds ESPN cited that day had Carr at +220, Miami quarterback Darian Mensah at +250 and Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith at +280. Nobody else was close. Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker sat at +1550, Utah's Devon Dampier at +1600 and Alabama's Keelon Russell at +2400.

Why Carr jumped

The Miami game was the kind of résumé line voters remember. Notre Dame Athletics says Carr completed passes to 10 different receivers, the Irish piled up 412 yards without a turnover and the win was the program's 10th ever over an AP No. 1 team. Carr was named AP Player of the Week, the Maxwell Award Player of the Week and the Davey O'Brien National Quarterback of the Week for it. On Nov. 10, Carr and the two players chasing him, Mensah and Smith, all made the Maxwell Award semifinalist list.

The season numbers back it up. Through nine games, Notre Dame's official statistics have Carr at 177 of 262 (67.6%) for 2,168 yards, 21 touchdowns and one interception, with a 162.8 efficiency rating. He has added three rushing touchdowns. The school says his 21 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio is the best in the FBS, and the Irish (8-1) average 39.3 points per game, ninth in the country.

Carr is not piling up the biggest raw totals in this group. His case is efficiency plus the biggest win of the season, and right now that combination is moving the market.

Mensah still has the best numbers

The quarterback Carr beat is right behind him. Miami says Mensah has completed 76.8% of his passes for 2,694 yards, 28 touchdowns and two interceptions through nine games. He leads the nation with an 89.1 ESPN Total QBR, ranks second in touchdown passes and has thrown at least three scores in eight of Miami's nine games.

The problem is help. ESPN reported that Malachi Toney, Mensah's top target, suffered a high ankle sprain in practice and will miss a few weeks. Undrafted tracked that injury before the Notre Dame game. Toney had 73 catches for 1,027 yards and 13 touchdowns in eight games, per Miami. Mensah gets his first chance to answer when the Hurricanes host Duke on Saturday, Nov. 14, at noon ET.

Jeremiah Smith and a fading team

Smith has the most eye-catching stat line of anyone in the top three. Ohio State's cumulative statistics through the Nov. 7 loss to Oregon list him with 69 catches for 1,200 yards and 14 touchdowns in nine games, an average of 133.3 yards per game.

His team is the issue. The Buckeyes are 6-3 after a 41-28 loss to Oregon, and ESPN notes Smith's pace has slowed since quarterback Julian Sayin was hurt. Receivers rarely win this award without a winning team, and Smith now needs both big games and help.

The long shots with real numbers

Mestemaker may be the best value on the board. Oklahoma State's official statistics have the sophomore at 206 of 309 for 2,962 yards, 29 touchdowns and eight interceptions through nine games. ESPN put him eighth in its Week 10 list after a 313-yard, four touchdown day in a 66-28 rout of Kansas State. The Cowboys are 6-3, which caps his ceiling.

Dampier has the best team. Utah is 9-0 and a program-best No. 2 in the AP poll after a 28-20 win over BYU. Utah's cumulative statistics through that game have him 172 of 253 for 2,053 yards, 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions, plus 482 rushing yards and seven more scores on 103 carries.

Russell went 17 of 24 for 206 yards and three touchdowns in Alabama's 31-13 win at LSU, per ESPN, and the Crimson Tide are No. 3 in the CFP rankings.

Two races, not one

ESPN's own weekly points system tells a messier story than the odds. After Week 10, West Virginia's Michael Hawkins Jr. and Russell share the points lead at 29, with Smith at 27.5 and Toney at 27. Carr is tied for seventh at 22 and Mensah ranks 12th. ESPN's verdict was that the race is wide open, and the numbers agree.

Carr's path is simple. Notre Dame hosts Boston College on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on NBC, then closes with SMU and Syracuse. Keep doing what he did against Miami and the favorite tag could stick. One bad afternoon, and Mensah or Smith is back on top.

Sources: ESPN, Notre Dame Athletics, Miami Athletics, Ohio State Athletics, Oklahoma State Athletics, Utah Athletics.

Photo: Notre Dame Athletics (file photo from Nov. 7, 2026, vs. Miami).