NCAA Data: FBS Players Who Transfer More Than Once Graduate at 58%, Far Below 85% for Those Who Stay

The transfer portal has reshaped rosters, recruiting and coaching jobs. On Wednesday, Nov. 11, the NCAA put a number on what it says the portal is doing to diplomas, and the steepest drop showed up in major college football.

According to new data (opens in a new tab) from the NCAA's research department, FBS athletes who transferred more than once graduated at a rate of 58% within six years. FBS athletes who never transferred graduated at 85%. That is a gap of 27 percentage points between players who stayed put and players who moved two or more times.

What the study measured

The NCAA tracked nearly 36,000 Division I athletes who entered college in the 2018-19 academic year and followed them for six years. The research combined the association's own academic data with term-by-term enrollment and graduation records from the National Student Clearinghouse, which lets the study follow an athlete even after leaving a school.

Roughly 24,500 of those athletes never transferred. About 7,700 transferred once. About 3,800 attended three or more schools.

Across Division I, 88% of athletes with no transfer record graduated within six years, compared with 71% of those who transferred more than once. The NCAA said the pattern held regardless of race, gender or sport: multiple transfers typically graduated at a rate about 10 points lower than one-time transfers and 15 to 20 points lower than athletes who never left.

Football takes the biggest hit

The FBS gap stands out. In the Championship Subdivision, 83% of non-transfers graduated, compared with 62% of multiple transfers, a gap of 21 points. In FBS, where the portal churn is heaviest and the money is biggest, the gap widened to 27 points.

Basketball numbers, as reported by the Associated Press, followed the same shape. In men's basketball, 74% of non-transfers graduated, while 67% of multiple transfers did. In women's basketball, the split was 90% for non-transfers and 77% for multiple transfers.

The study also found a wider gap among Black athletes. Across all sports, 82% of Black athletes who never transferred earned degrees, compared with 62% of those who transferred more than once, according to the NCAA.

Baker's warning

NCAA President Charlie Baker framed the findings as a direct response to the eligibility fights playing out in court. "This data should serve as a flashing red warning sign," Baker said, per the AP, arguing that court-imposed transfer rules are making academic outcomes worse. He added that "thankfully Congress is closer than ever to passing a bill to reverse this trend."

The bill in question is the Protect College Sports Act, which would limit future eligibility lawsuits. The AP noted it would not affect cases already filed and faces an uncertain path in the House.

Why the timing matters

The release lands in the middle of a legal war over how long athletes can play. The NCAA is being sued by players seeking a fifth year of eligibility, and those cases almost always involve a transfer. Courts have ruled against the NCAA's eligibility rules in multiple cases, according to the AP. Undrafted has tracked that fight, from the July court order that scrambled fifth-year eligibility to the NCAA's lawsuit against Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine over an executive order on the same issue.

There is an important caveat in reading the numbers. The class studied here entered college in 2018-19, before the NCAA adopted its one-time transfer exception in 2021 and before the portal became the free agency market it is today. The NCAA is using that data to warn about where things are heading, but the study measures a group whose college careers straddled the old rules and the new ones.

The bigger picture for college football

For coaches, the portal is a roster tool. For athletes, it can be a path to playing time, a bigger NIL deal or a better fit. The NCAA's data argues there is also a cost that does not show up on a depth chart, and that it lands hardest on players who move more than once.

Expect this report to become a talking point on Capitol Hill and in courtrooms in the weeks ahead. Whether it changes how athletes use the portal is a different question, and one the next round of graduation data will have to answer.

Sources: NCAA, Associated Press via ESPN.

Photo: NCAA (graduation rates release graphic).