Patriots vs. Dolphins Week 8 Preview: Malik Willis Gets His Shot at Old Coach Mike Vrabel

Malik Willis made his first NFL starts for Mike Vrabel in Tennessee. On Sunday he gets to line up across from his old coach, and for the first time all season the Dolphins walk in with a win and a little swagger. Willis took the high road this week. "I can't say anything but great things about Coach Vrabel," Willis said. Very gracious. Also exactly what a quarterback says right before he tries to run all over your defense.

Kickoff is Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, on CBS. The Dolphins (1-5) are coming off a 28-25 win over the Jets, the first of Jeff Hafley's tenure. The Patriots (4-3), last season's AFC champions, arrive off a 30-24 Thursday night loss in Chicago that ended a three-game winning streak, and they will do it without star receiver A.J. Brown.

Division Pride and a Patriots Team Still Searching

New England sits second in the AFC East behind 5-1 Buffalo and is 4-1 against AFC opponents. The Patriots swept Miami last season, 33-27 and 38-10, and are going for a third straight win in the series, per the team's website. Still, Vrabel sounded this week like a coach who has accepted that some flaws are baked in. Looking back on seven weeks of tape, he said Wednesday that "we can yell and scream about it till we're blue in the face, or we can coach it, and it's maybe not going to change."

Miami's mission is simpler: prove the Jets game was not a fluke. Hafley, who has 15 rookies on the roster, spent part of the week explaining what division games mean. "All these guys watched them play in the Super Bowl last year," Hafley said this week. Vrabel returned the respect this week. "They play extremely hard. I have a lot of respect for what Jeff's done," Vrabel said.

Miami's Ground Game vs. a Sturdy Patriots Front

Miami finally has an identity: run it, then run it again. Its 131.5 rushing yards per game rank seventh, and no team has a longer active run of 100-yard rushing games than Miami's five, per the AP. Ollie Gordon II has found the end zone on the ground in four consecutive games and went for 103 yards on 25 carries against the Jets. Willis adds another layer as a scrambler, and his 223 rushing yards rank second among quarterbacks, per the Dolphins' website. New England counters with a run defense allowing 95.3 yards per game, eighth in the league, per the AP, though the Bears ran for 116 against it last week.

Weather could push things further toward the ground. The Dolphins' website says the Miami Gardens forecast calls for rain throughout Sunday.

The other side looks like a dream on paper for Drake Maye. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 76.6 percent of their throws against Miami with a 116.8 rating, both the worst marks in the league, per the Patriots' website. The catch: Brown, Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins are all unavailable, leaving New England with three healthy receivers in DeMario Douglas, Efton Chism III and Kyle Williams. Expect a heavy dose of tight ends Hunter Henry and Eli Raridon, plus Rhamondre Stevenson, who caught five passes for 93 yards in Chicago.

Keep an Eye On

• Malik Willis, Dolphins QB: 87 of 151 for 1,057 yards, four touchdowns and four interceptions. Against the Jets he went 14 of 21 for 208 yards and two scores and added a rushing touchdown.
• Drake Maye, Patriots QB: 1,784 yards, 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He threw for 321 yards and two scores in Chicago and had 10 touchdown passes against one interception during the three-game win streak, per the AP.
• Ollie Gordon II, Dolphins RB: 339 yards and four touchdowns on 72 carries, and all four of those scores have come during his current four-game touchdown streak.
• Hunter Henry, Patriots TE: 26 catches for 296 yards and two touchdowns. His next touchdown catch would move him alone into third among Patriots tight ends in career scoring grabs, per the AP.

New England's Missing Pieces

Per the team injury report, Patriots wide receiver A.J. Brown (ankle) and running back TreVeyon Henderson (illness) are out. New England downgraded both on Saturday, and neither traveled to Miami, per the team's website. Cornerback Carlton Davis III (neck) and linebacker Christian Elliss (chest), the team leader with 51 tackles, are listed as questionable. Guard Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring) is on injured reserve. If Davis plays, the AP noted, New England could have its full starting secondary together for the first time since Week 1.

For Miami, offensive lineman Kadyn Proctor (concussion) is out. Cornerbacks JuJu Brents (neck) and Reese Taylor (quadriceps) are questionable, and running back De'Von Achane (knee) and linebacker Ronnie Harrison Jr. (hamstring) are on injured reserve.

Numbers Worth Knowing

• DraftKings lists New England as a 7-point favorite with a total of 43.5, via ESPN, as of Saturday.
• ESPN's matchup predictor gives the Patriots a 79.6 percent chance to win.
• New England has gone 113-49 against the AFC East since 2000, yet Miami holds a 33-29 edge in the series over that span, per the AP.
• Miami ranks 30th in scoring at 16.3 points per game, but its long marches pay off: six drives of 70-plus yards, six touchdowns.
• The Dolphins lead the all-time series 63-55.

Our Call

Our pick: Patriots 24, Dolphins 17. Miami's run game fits a soggy afternoon, and Willis has earned some benefit of the doubt after the Jets game. But the Dolphins' pass defense has been the softest in the league by the numbers above, and Maye does not need Brown to carve up a unit allowing completions at that rate. Henry, Raridon and Stevenson out of the backfield should be enough to keep the chains moving. Willis keeps it close for a half, and his old coach gets the last word.

Odds from DraftKings via ESPN as of Oct. 31. Injury statuses from team reports via ESPN and patriots.com. Quotes as reported by the Associated Press.