Falcons vs. Buccaneers Week 8 Preview: Michael Penix Jr. Comes Home With the NFC South Up for Grabs

Michael Penix Jr. grew up in Dade City and went to high school in Tampa, which means Sunday comes with a ticket-request problem. "It's exciting, and I imagine I should have a lot of people coming to the game," Penix said this week. Everyone on that list will get to watch the reigning NFC Offensive Player of the Week walk into a stadium where the home team has not won all year.

The Atlanta Falcons (3-4) visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5) at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. Both teams are coming off statement wins: Atlanta handed previously unbeaten San Francisco its first loss, 29-20, and Tampa Bay flattened Carolina 43-13 on the road.

The Stakes: Welcome to the NFC South, Where 3-4 Is First Place

This division is a group project where nobody did the reading. Carolina and Atlanta are tied on top at 3-4 after the Panthers lost at Green Bay on Thursday, with Tampa Bay and New Orleans at 2-5. Last year, Carolina, Atlanta and Tampa Bay all finished 8-9, and the Panthers took the title on a tiebreaker, per the AP. A win Sunday puts Atlanta at 4-4 with a road win in the division.

The Falcons started 0-2, including a 34-3 home loss to Carolina, and are 3-2 since Penix took over. First-year coach Kevin Stefanski loved how physical his team looked against the 49ers. "That's in our DNA," Stefanski said this week.

Tampa Bay lost its first four games, has won two of three since, and is 0-4 at home. Nobody in the building is pretending that is fine. "We haven't won a home game yet," quarterback Baker Mayfield said this week, per the Buccaneers.

The Bucs also owe Atlanta one. Last December in Tampa, the Falcons rallied from 28-14 down in the fourth quarter to win 29-28 on a field goal at the gun, a loss that eventually cost Tampa Bay the division tiebreaker, per the team. Kyle Pitts caught 11 passes for 166 yards and three touchdowns that night.

The Matchup That Decides It: Tampa's Ground Game vs. a Short-Handed Falcons Defense

The Bucs have found an identity, and it is extremely un-2026: hand it off until the other team begs for mercy. They ran for 241 yards at Dallas and 258 at Carolina, when Mayfield threw only 11 passes and the Bucs ran 49 times. "I mean, I think that's our calling card," coach Todd Bowles said this week. "We play a lot better when we run the ball very successfully, whether we're home or on the road."

Bucky Irving is the engine, with 558 yards and four touchdowns at 4.7 yards per carry. He just went for 106 yards and two scores at Carolina.

That is a problem for an Atlanta defense missing its communicator. Linebacker Divine Deablo was downgraded to out, and rookie Kendal Daniels is expected to keep wearing the green-dot helmet next to fellow rookie Harold Perkins Jr., per the Falcons' site.

The other half of the AP's matchup to watch is Penix against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks third in the NFL. The Bucs allow 77.3 rushing yards per game and have 10 sacks in their last two games after six in the previous five. Atlanta's line has allowed only 62 quarterback pressures, tied with San Francisco for the fewest in the league, per the AP. Something gives.

Players to Watch

Michael Penix Jr., QB, Falcons. He is 96 of 144 for 1,157 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception, and he went 25 of 34 for 213 yards and three scores against the 49ers. His 109.1 passer rating ranks fourth in the NFL, per the Falcons' site.

Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons. Robinson leads the NFL with 704 rushing yards. Bucs run game coordinator Larry Foote called him "Mr. Number Seven" this week and added, "this is their generation of Barry Sanders."

Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons. Pitts has four touchdowns in his last three games, and all five of his career touchdowns in the state of Florida have come against the Bucs over the last two seasons, per the Falcons' site. "Love playing in the great state of Florida; it's always fun," Pitts said this week.

Bucky Irving, RB, Buccaneers. Irving carried 24 times at Carolina. If Tampa Bay finally wins at home, expect a similar workload aimed straight at Atlanta's rookie linebackers.

Injury Report

Tampa Bay ruled out receiver Emeka Egbuka (foot), who leads the team with 28 catches, per the Buccaneers. Running back Kenny Gainwell (hip) and tackle Luke Goedeke (calf) are questionable. Bowles said safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who missed the last three games, will return. Cornerback Josh Hayes (knee) and linebacker Christian Rozeboom (finger) are on injured reserve.

Atlanta ruled out Deablo (forearm), defensive back Billy Bowman Jr. (hamstring) and running back Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring), and downgraded receiver Beaux Collins (hip) and tackle Cameron Williams (ankle) to out while they remain on injured reserve, per the Falcons. ESPN's report also lists defensive tackle Anterio Thompson as out. Receiver Olamide Zaccheaus (shoulder), defensive ends Samson Ebukam (hamstring) and Charles Snowden (back) and cornerback Avieon Terrell (illness) are questionable.

By the Numbers

• DraftKings lists Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 43.5, via ESPN, as of Saturday.
• ESPN's matchup predictor gives the Buccaneers a 69.1% chance to win.
• Each of the last six games in this series has been decided by six or fewer points, per the AP.
• Penix has completed at least 72% of his passes in each of Atlanta's three wins.
• The Falcons lead the all-time series 33-32.

Our Pick: Penix Spoils the Homecoming Party (for Tampa, Anyway)

Tampa Bay's ground game is legit, and Atlanta's missing linebackers make that scary. But the Bucs are still searching for a home win, Egbuka is out, and Mayfield has thrown 11 passes since returning from a dislocated thumb. Atlanta has the better quarterback right now and the matchup edge with Pitts, given that tight ends have hurt Tampa Bay this season, per the Falcons' site.

Our pick: Falcons 23, Buccaneers 20. Another one-score finish in this rivalry, and Penix gives the folks back home something to talk about.

Odds from DraftKings via ESPN as of Oct. 31. Injury statuses from team reports via ESPN, atlantafalcons.com and buccaneers.com. Quotes as reported by the Associated Press, atlantafalcons.com and buccaneers.com.