Thorns vs. Dash Preview: Sophia Wilson Is Eligible Again as Kat Rader Chases Rookie History

Two scorers, two completely different agendas. Sophia Wilson is eligible again for Portland Thorns FC after sitting out two matches through suspension, and the Thorns would love to get her sharp before the playoffs. Kat Rader is one goal from tying the NWSL single-season rookie scoring record, and the Houston Dash would love for her to do it in front of the home crowd on the last night of the season.

It all happens Sunday at 5 p.m. ET (4 p.m. local) at Shell Energy Stadium in Houston, which is also the Dash's Fan Appreciation Night. Portland comes in at 13-8-8 (wins-draws-losses) with 47 points, seventh in the table. Houston is 9-6-14 with 33 points, 12th, and out of the playoff race since Week 24.

Portland Is In. Where It Lands Is the Question.

Portland clinched in Week 26 with a 1-0 win over North Carolina, and the league points out that no club has made the postseason more often; this is the Thorns' 12th trip. What is left is seeding. Portland sits level on 47 points with sixth-place Utah, one behind Angel City and three behind Kansas City in a tightly packed middle of the table. The league's Decision Day preview frames it as Portland wanting to hold a favorable spot for its playoff run, and a road win in Houston is the cleanest way to do that.

Houston has nothing left to chase in the standings, but it has momentum. Under interim head coach Jaime Frias, the Dash took seven points from their last three road matches, per the club, capped by a 3-1 win at Chicago last week. The catch is home form: Houston lost its last two matches at Shell Energy Stadium, 3-2 to Washington and 2-1 to Orlando. Fan Appreciation Night would be a fine time to fix that.

Where This One Gets Decided

Start with Wilson. She leads Portland with 13 goals and five assists on 117 shots, and she set up Marie Müller's 85th-minute equalizer the last time these teams met, a 1-1 draw in Portland on Sept. 26. Portland took four points from the two matches she missed, drawing 2-2 at Bay and beating North Carolina 1-0, so the Thorns survived without her. They will not want to keep testing that theory in the playoffs.

Houston's preview notes that Portland has scored in 13 consecutive matches, so the Dash back line will be busy. Leah Klenke leads Houston in minutes, clearances and aerial duels won, per the club, and she also leads the team with 1,166 accurate passes. Behind her, captain Jane Campbell has made 119 saves, the kind of workload that tells you how often this defense has been under siege.

At the other end, it is Rader against Mackenzie Arnold. Rader has 10 goals on 58 shots, and she scored her 10th in that Sept. 26 meeting, finishing a Kate Faasse pass in the 10th minute. Per the Dash, she is the first Houston player to reach double digits since Rachel Daly in 2018, and one more goal would match the rookie record of 11 set by Diana Ordóñez with North Carolina in 2023. Arnold, with 91 saves, posted her eighth clean sheet of the season against North Carolina last week, which Houston's preview notes was also the Thorns' 100th clean sheet in team history, a first for an NWSL club.

The other Portland piece is Pietra Tordin, who leads the team with nine assists and adds eight goals of her own. If Houston sells out to stop Wilson, Tordin is the one who punishes it.

Players to Watch

Sophia Wilson, Portland. Thirteen goals, five assists and a fresh set of legs. Expect Portland to want her involved early.

Pietra Tordin, Portland. Nine assists and eight goals. She is the playmaker who makes the Wilson problem worse.

Kat Rader, Houston. Ten goals and one shot at history. Houston's rookie class has accounted for 18 of the team's 38 goals, per the club, and she is the headliner.

Leah Klenke, Houston. Scored her first professional goal in the fourth minute at Chicago and earned a Player of the Week nomination for it. She is also the key to keeping Wilson quiet.

Team News

Houston's preview confirms Wilson is eligible. Portland lists Bella Bixby and Olivia Moultrie out on the season-ending list with knee injuries. Houston is without Makenzy Robbe and Amanda West, both on the season-ending list, and Evelina Duljan is also listed as out on the league's availability report. Nobody on either side is listed as questionable.

By the Numbers

• DraftKings lists Portland at +100 on the moneyline, Houston at +205 and the draw at +255, with a total of 2.5 goals, via ESPN, as of Saturday.
• In ESPN's last five meetings, Portland has four wins and one draw, the 1-1 in Portland on Sept. 26.
• Houston's preview says that draw was the Dash's first point in Oregon since the 2023 season.
• Houston took seven points from its last three road matches but lost its last two at home.
• Portland has scored in 13 straight matches, per the Dash.

The Pick

Portland has more firepower, more at stake and Wilson back in the mix, and Houston's recent home record does not inspire much confidence. But the Dash have been frisky, Rader has a record to chase, and Portland's road form has been far shakier than its home form all year.

Our pick: Portland 2-1. Wilson scores on her return, Tordin sets up the winner, and Rader gets her record-tying goal in a losing effort, because Decision Day loves a bittersweet subplot.

Odds from DraftKings via ESPN as of Oct. 31. Standings and stats from ESPN. Playoff picture and availability from NWSLsoccer.com. Club notes from the Houston Dash's official site.