Stars vs. Spirit Preview: Washington Guards a Home Playoff Spot Against Last-Place Chicago

On paper, this is the most lopsided match on the NWSL Decision Day card, and the betting market is not being subtle about it. DraftKings has the Washington Spirit at -1100 to beat Chicago Stars FC. But the Spirit are coming off a loss, they just lost a key midfielder for the season, and a home playoff game rides on the result. Heavy favorites have tripped over smaller banana peels.

Kickoff is 5 p.m. ET on Sunday at Audi Field in Washington, which doubles as the Spirit's Fan Appreciation Night, complete with a Trinity Rodman-designed hat giveaway. Washington is 16-4-9 (wins-draws-losses) with 52 points, third in the table. Chicago is 5-2-22 with 17 points, last of 16 clubs.

Third Place Is Comfortable Until It Isn't

Washington clinched its playoff berth in Week 25, per the league, so the fight now is for home field. The league's Decision Day preview has Washington and Kansas City holding the last two home quarterfinal spots, with fifth-place Angel City (49 points) and sixth-place Utah (47) ready to pounce if either one loses. Translation: a slip here, combined with results elsewhere, could turn a home playoff game into a road trip.

The Spirit's form has been a little choppy. Their last five read win, loss, win, win, loss, ending with last Sunday's 2-1 defeat at Kansas City. Clara Luvanga scored in the 12th minute there, and then KC scored twice in the next five minutes. And here is the weird part: Washington has been better on the road than at home all season, with nine away wins against seven at home. Fan Appreciation Night would be a fine time to flip that script.

Chicago was eliminated back in Week 21 and arrives on a five-match losing streak, with a minus-52 goal difference in the standings. Karina Báez has been the interim head coach since Aug. 12, per the club, and Vlatko Andonovski joined in September as Chief Soccer Officer. For now, they are playing for pride and a better final memory than the last few weeks have offered.

Where This One Gets Decided

Washington's issue is in the middle of the park. The club announced this week that Hal Hershfelt suffered a torn ACL in the loss at Kansas City and has been placed on the season-ending injury list. Hershfelt's influence showed up in this exact fixture: she assisted Rodman's opening goal when Washington won 3-0 in Evanston on Sept. 20. Deborah Abiodun (hip) and Kate Wiesner (ankle) are also on the season-ending list, so the Spirit will lean heavily on Tara Rudd and Esme Morgan, who have completed 1,647 and 1,592 passes, to keep things ticking.

Up front, it is the Rodman show. She leads Washington with 11 goals and eight assists on 107 shots, and she did a bit of everything in that September win, scoring in the seventh minute and crossing for Tamara Bolt's late header. Andi Sullivan added a penalty in that one. Sofia Cantore chips in six goals, and Leicy Santos has four assists.

Chicago is short-handed in exactly the wrong places. Jordyn Huitema, the team's leading scorer with four goals, is on the season-ending list, and Julia Grosso, who leads the Stars with 22 chances created per the club, is listed as out with a neck injury. That leaves Sam Staab, who has played every one of Chicago's 29 matches and scored a stoppage-time header against Houston last week, as one of the few constants. Simone Charley, who scored her first goal for the club against Seattle on Oct. 18, is another name to watch.

In goal, Katie Atkinson has made 67 saves and Alyssa Naeher has 42. Whoever starts will be busy with Rodman.

Players to Watch

Trinity Rodman, Washington. Eleven goals, eight assists and a goal plus an assist the last time she saw Chicago. The best player on the field, by a distance.

Sofia Cantore, Washington. Six goals on 48 shots. If Chicago crowds Rodman, Cantore is the one who gets the looks.

Sam Staab, Chicago. Two goals, 1,254 accurate passes and the club lead in minutes, clearances and blocks, per the Stars. She is Chicago's heartbeat.

Katie Atkinson, Chicago. Sixty-seven saves this season. If she gets the start, she may need a career afternoon to keep this close.

Team News

Washington is without Hershfelt, Abiodun and Wiesner, all on the season-ending list. Chicago lists Huitema and Natalia Kuikka on the season-ending list with knee injuries, plus Grosso (neck), Ryan Connaughton (knee) and Racheal Kundananji as out. Nobody on either side is listed as questionable.

By the Numbers

• DraftKings lists Washington at -1100 on the moneyline, Chicago at +1200 and the draw at +800, with a total of 3.5 goals, via ESPN, as of Saturday.
• In ESPN's last five meetings, Washington has three wins, Chicago one and there was one draw; Washington won the most recent, 3-0 on Sept. 20.
• Chicago has lost five straight.
• Washington has nine road wins and seven home wins this season.
• Goal difference: Washington plus-13, Chicago minus-52.

The Pick

Chicago will fight, and Washington's home form and Hershfelt's absence give this a sliver of intrigue. But a sliver is all it is. The Spirit have the best player on the field, a clear reason to win and an opponent that has not taken a point in more than a month.

Our pick: Washington 3-0. Rodman scores early, Cantore adds one, and the Spirit hold serve while everyone in the building keeps one eye on the scores from Carson, Harrison and Louisville.

Odds from DraftKings via ESPN as of Oct. 31. Standings and stats from ESPN. Playoff picture and availability from NWSLsoccer.com. Additional notes from WashingtonSpirit.com and ChicagoStars.com.