Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United Preview: TFC Needs Its First Regular-Season Win in Atlanta

Toronto FC has visited Mercedes-Benz Stadium nine times in the regular season and never left with a win. Sunday would be a great time to fix that, because the Reds' playoff hopes are hanging by a thread and the team holding the scissors is an Atlanta side with nothing left to play for except pride and its own fans.

Kickoff is Sunday at 4:30 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, on Apple TV. Toronto comes in 12th in the Eastern Conference at 9-12-11 (wins-draws-losses) with 39 points, level on points with Red Bull New York and New York City FC. Atlanta is 14th at 8-6-18 with 30 points, and the club's own preview says the Five Stripes can no longer make the playoffs.

Saturday Already Did Toronto No Favors

MLSsoccer.com's Matchday 34 scenarios page lists Toronto as eliminated if it loses or draws at Atlanta and Columbus beats D.C. United. Columbus took care of its half on Saturday, beating D.C. 3-0. Translation: anything short of three points in Atlanta ends Toronto's playoff hopes, and the club's Matchday 34 rundown calls this the Reds' penultimate regular-season match. A Toronto stumble would also help others: per the same page, Columbus, with its win banked, clinches if Toronto fails to win and Red Bull New York fails to win at Nashville.

The good news for the Reds is that they have been playing like a team that knows the stakes. Toronto has taken points in four of its last five matches and came from behind on Wednesday to beat D.C. 2-1 at BMO Field. Jonathan Osorio's equalizer, which came off his back after a Josh Sargent header, was his 70th goal for his hometown club, and Toronto says he is now the first player in MLS history to score in 14 consecutive seasons for a single club. Sargent then won it in the 86th minute.

Atlanta, meanwhile, has turned into a group playing for next season. The Five Stripes are winless in their last six home matches, per the club, and have lost four of their last five overall. This is also their last home game of 2026.

"For me, it's very important because it sets the tone for how we will start next season," head coach Tata Martino said this week.

The Matchup That Decides It

Toronto's attack vs. Atlanta's back line. This one is simple: the Reds have scored at least two goals in each of their last five matches, while Atlanta has conceded at least two in four of its last five. Dániel Sallói has nine goals and a team-high seven assists, and Sargent also has nine goals on a team-high 61 shots, with goals in back-to-back matches for the first time this season, per the club. Atlanta will try to hold that off without center back Enea Mihaj. Goalkeeper Lucas Hoyos has made 77 saves, and he may need a career afternoon.

Miguel Almirón vs. Luka Gavran. If Atlanta is going to spoil anything, Almirón is the guy. He has six goals (tied for the team lead), plus team highs of seven assists and 65 shots. Breel Embolo has also scored in each of Atlanta's last two matches. On the other end is Gavran, who has made 101 saves for Toronto. In April, Atlanta beat Toronto 2-1 at BMO Field on an Alexey Miranchuk free kick and a Tristan Muyumba strike, so the Reds know exactly how quickly this can turn.

Players to Watch

• Josh Sargent, Toronto forward: nine goals in 25 matches, and a spot on the MLS Team of the Matchday bench after the D.C. win, per the club.
• Dániel Sallói, Toronto attacker: nine goals and seven assists in 32 matches, tied for the team lead in goals and first in assists.
• Miguel Almirón, Atlanta attacker: six goals and seven assists in 25 matches.
• Tristan Muyumba, Atlanta midfielder: a team-high 1,303 accurate passes and the scorer of the winner in April.

Muyumba was blunt about what Sunday means for the people in the stands. "I think they deserve a good performance from the team and also a win," he said Friday.

Team News

Atlanta's availability report, published Saturday, lists only two absences: center back Enea Mihaj will miss a second straight match with a hip injury, and Will Reilly is out for the rest of the season with an ankle injury, per the club. Toronto's entry on the league's player availability report had not been posted when we checked. The MLS disciplinary summary lists Toronto's Alonso Coello and Atlanta's Mauricio Amaro as one caution away from a suspension or fine.

By the Numbers

• DraftKings lists Atlanta at +115 on the moneyline, Toronto at +180 and the draw at +285, with a total of 3.5 goals, via ESPN, as of Saturday. Yes, the 14th-place team is the favorite at home.
• ESPN's log of the last five meetings has Atlanta ahead 2-1-2, including that 2-1 win in Toronto on April 25.
• Per Toronto, the Reds are 5-6-8 across 19 regular-season meetings with Atlanta, and 0-4-5 in nine visits to Mercedes-Benz Stadium since October 2017 (wins-losses-draws).
• Toronto has scored 11 goals in its last five matches. Atlanta has allowed 11 in its last five.

The Pick

Everything about this screams chaos. Toronto has to win, Atlanta has a free swing at a desperate opponent with a tired season behind it, and both defenses have been generous. The difference is urgency and finishing: Toronto's front line is producing, and Atlanta has not won at home in six tries. The ghosts of nine winless regular-season trips to Atlanta make it nervy, but Sargent and Sallói keep the Reds breathing for one more week.

Our pick: Toronto 3, Atlanta 2.

Odds from DraftKings via ESPN as of Oct. 31. Standings, records and stats from ESPN. Playoff scenarios from MLSsoccer.com, suspension warnings from the MLS disciplinary summary, quotes and team news from atlutd.com, and Toronto notes from torontofc.ca.