Minnesota United vs. LAFC Preview: Loons Must Win at BMO Stadium to Keep Playoff Hopes Alive

Minnesota United has turned its season into a survival show, and Sunday is the episode where one bad night ends the series. The Loons are unbeaten in five, but they need three points at BMO Stadium against an LAFC team that has already punched its playoff ticket and still has plenty to sort out.

Kickoff is Sunday at 8:30 p.m. ET at BMO Stadium, on Apple TV. LAFC sits sixth in the Western Conference at 12-11-9 (wins-draws-losses) with 47 points. Minnesota is 13th at 9-11-12 with 38 points. It is LAFC's home finale and Fan Appreciation match, per the club.

Win or Go Home

MLSsoccer.com's Matchday 34 scenarios page is blunt about Minnesota: the Loons are eliminated if they lose or draw at LAFC. It is the one scenario on that page with no other results attached. Their regular season then wraps up Nov. 7 at home against San Jose, per the club.

The good news is the Loons are finally playing like a team that believes it. Minnesota has two wins and three draws in its last five matches and scored 10 goals in that stretch, including a 3-1 comeback win over Sporting Kansas City on Wednesday. Head coach Cameron Knowles has been preaching one game at a time, per the club's preview, and Sunday is the one that matters most.

LAFC's situation is stranger. The Black & Gold have clinched a playoff spot, but they are playing under interim head coach Xavi Tamarit following the late-season departure of Marc Dos Santos, and Tamarit has one win and three draws in four matches so far, per the club. LAFC has one win in its last five matches, a 3-1 win over Austin, and per its own preview, it has not kept a clean sheet since a 2-0 win over Red Bull New York on Sept. 9. For a team that opened the season with a league-record run of shutouts, that is a strange stat to sit with heading into the playoffs.

The Matchup That Decides It

Denis Bouanga vs. Kelvin Yeboah, a shootout of 18-goal strikers. Both are on 18 goals, which Minnesota's preview says has them tied for fourth in the Golden Boot race. Bouanga has 93 shots, eight goals in his last 10 appearances per LAFC, and a chance at history: two more goals in the last two matches would give him a fourth straight 20-goal regular season. Per the club, he and Messi are the only players in MLS history to top 20 regular-season goals in three straight seasons. Yeboah, meanwhile, has scored in four of Minnesota's last five matches, including the late goal that sealed Wednesday's win, on 87 shots for the season.

Son Heung-Min vs. Joaquín Pereyra, the battle of the assist men. ESPN credits Pereyra with 15 assists and Son with 14, while LAFC's count has Son on 15 and says one more would break Carlos Vela's club single-season record. Either way, these two are the reason their strikers eat. The defensive context favors LAFC: the Black & Gold have allowed 35 goals in 32 matches, second-fewest in the West behind Vancouver, while Minnesota has allowed 56, fifth-most in the conference, per LAFC's preview. If Minnesota chases the game, Son will have room to run.

Players to Watch

• Denis Bouanga, LAFC forward: 18 goals and seven assists in 30 matches, and goals in three of his team's last four games.
• Son Heung-Min, LAFC forward: seven goals and a team-high 102 shots to go with his assists.
• Kelvin Yeboah, Minnesota striker: 18 goals in 31 matches, the reason the Loons still have a pulse.
• Anthony Markanich, Minnesota midfielder: nine goals, including the header that started the comeback against Kansas City.

Team News

LAFC's Saturday status report lists Thayllon (leg) and Timothy Tillman (pelvis) as out and Yevhen Cheberko (leg) as questionable. Minnesota's preview, published Thursday, said Wil Trapp was out under concussion protocol and that Pereyra was working his way back to full fitness. The MLS disciplinary summary lists Minnesota's Owen Gene as one caution away from a suspension or fine.

By the Numbers

• DraftKings lists LAFC at -145 on the moneyline, Minnesota at +320 and the draw at +310, with a total of 3.5 goals, via ESPN, as of Saturday.
• ESPN's log of the last five meetings has LAFC ahead 4-1, including a 1-0 win at Allianz Field on April 25. Per LAFC, the last five meetings all finished 1-0 or 2-0, with LAFC winning the last four.
• LAFC has eight wins, three losses and five draws at home in league play this season and, per the club, unbeaten in MLS play when it scores first.
• Minnesota's last five: two wins, three draws. LAFC's last five: one win, three draws, one loss.

The Pick

This one has upset energy. Minnesota is in better form, has the same 18-goal firepower up top and has nothing to lose. LAFC has the better roster, the home crowd and a defense that, even without recent clean sheets, has been one of the West's best. The history of tight, low-scoring games in this series says the first goal is huge, and LAFC has not lost an MLS match this year after scoring first. We think Bouanga gets it, Yeboah answers, and LAFC's depth wins the last half hour.

Our pick: LAFC 2, Minnesota 1. That result would end Minnesota's playoff hopes.

Odds from DraftKings via ESPN as of Oct. 31. Standings, records and stats from ESPN. Playoff scenarios from MLSsoccer.com, suspension warnings from the MLS disciplinary summary, and club notes and injury reports from lafc.com and mnufc.com.