Summit vs. Courage Preview: Win in Cary, Then Watch Seattle for the Last Playoff Spot

Here is the strangest part of the NWSL Decision Day script: the two teams playing the most obvious knockout game of the day do not fully control their own fate. Denver Summit FC and the North Carolina Courage meet at WakeMed Soccer Park needing to win, and then needing Seattle to stumble against Orlando on the other side of the country. Win and pray is not a strategy, but it is the only one available.

Kickoff is 5 p.m. ET on Sunday in Cary, North Carolina. The Courage are 13-3-13 (wins-draws-losses) with 42 points, ninth in the table. Denver is 11-8-10 with 41 points, tenth, one point back. Seattle Reign FC holds eighth, the last playoff spot, with 44.

The Scenarios, Straight From the League

The league's Decision Day preview spells it out. North Carolina clinches with a win AND a Seattle draw or loss. Denver clinches with a win AND a Seattle loss. A draw in Cary hands the spot to Seattle, no matter what happens at Lumen Field. And if Seattle loses while Denver wins here, the league says Denver takes eighth place on goal difference. For reference, Denver sits at plus-12 in the standings and Seattle at plus-3.

So the math is brutal and clean. A draw is useless to both teams. Expect the final 20 minutes to look like a basketball game if the score is level.

Two Teams Headed in Opposite Directions

North Carolina limps in. The Courage have lost four of their last five, all by a single goal: 2-1 to Gotham, 2-1 at Utah, 2-1 to San Diego and 1-0 at Portland last week. The lone win in that stretch was, of all things, a 1-0 result at Seattle on Oct. 2, which is part of why the Reign are still sweating. North Carolina has also been oddly vulnerable at home, with seven losses at WakeMed this season.

Denver, meanwhile, just put up a 6-1 win over Racing Louisville in its final home match, in a match the league had billed as do or die for the Summit. Natasha Flint scored twice, Janine Sonis had two assists, Kaleigh Kurtz scored her first goal for the club and Lindsey Heaps added her fifth goal in four games, per the league. Denver's last five read win, loss, win, loss, win, so if the pattern holds, Sunday is a loss. Nobody in Colorado wants to hear that.

The expansion Summit also own the most prolific attack in the league. Kansas City's preview notes that Denver's 53 goals are one more than KC's 52, the second-best total. The road has been tougher, though: Denver has four wins away from home all season against seven at home.

Where This One Gets Decided

It starts with Ashley Sanchez. North Carolina's star has 20 goals and five assists on 111 shots, and Evelyn Ijeh adds 11 goals. Kansas City's preview notes that North Carolina and KC are the only clubs with multiple players in the top 10 of the Golden Boot race. Shinomi Koyama leads the Courage with six assists. If Sanchez gets loose in the box, Denver's season ends in Cary.

Denver's answer is Sonis, who leads the team with 12 goals and eight assists, plus Flint with eight goals and Yazmeen Ryan with six assists on a team-high 68 shots. Kurtz anchors the back with 1,595 accurate passes, and keeper Abby Smith has 84 saves. North Carolina's Kailen Sheridan has 78.

The last meeting tilts North Carolina's way. The Courage won 2-0 in Centennial, Colorado, on Aug. 5, with Riley Jackson converting a 48th-minute penalty and Ally Schlegel adding a second in the 81st. Schlegel is listed as questionable this week, though. DraftKings has the total at 3.5 goals, which tells you the oddsmakers expect chaos.

Players to Watch

Ashley Sanchez, North Carolina. Twenty goals. Every big Courage moment this season seems to run through her, and Sunday will be no different.

Janine Sonis, Denver. Twelve goals, eight assists and two more assists last week. She is the reason Denver can score with anyone.

Natasha Flint, Denver. Eight goals, two of them last Saturday. She scored with her left foot both times and looked like a player who knows what is at stake.

Evelyn Ijeh, North Carolina. Eleven goals as Sanchez's running mate. If Denver overloads on Sanchez, Ijeh is the one who makes them pay.

Team News

North Carolina lists Ally Schlegel as questionable with a foot injury. Maycee Bell, Payton Crawford and Sydney Schmidt are on the season-ending list, and Feli Rauch is out with a foot injury. Denver is without Jasmine Aikey and Nahikari Garcia, both on the season-ending list with knee injuries, and Camryn Biegalski is also listed as out on the league's availability report.

By the Numbers

• DraftKings lists North Carolina at +140 on the moneyline, Denver at +155 and the draw at +240, with a total of 3.5 goals, via ESPN, as of Saturday.
• Head to head: one previous meeting, a 2-0 North Carolina win in Colorado on Aug. 5.
• North Carolina has lost four of its last five, all by one goal.
• Denver has 53 goals, the most in the league, per the Kansas City Current.
• The table entering Sunday: Seattle 44, North Carolina 42, Denver 41.

The Pick

North Carolina has home field and the best individual scorer on the pitch. Denver has the hotter team, the better goal difference and a front line that just scored six. In a game where a draw does neither side any good, the team with more ways to score usually wins the late shootout.

Our pick: Denver 3-2. Sonis and Flint outgun Sanchez in a wild one, and then the Summit spend a very long few minutes waiting on Seattle.

Odds from DraftKings via ESPN as of Oct. 31. Standings and stats from ESPN. Playoff scenarios and availability from NWSLsoccer.com. Additional notes from KansasCityCurrent.com and RacingLouFC.com.