Red Bulls vs. Nashville SC Preview: Shield Party in Music City, Survival Test for New York

Nashville SC has a trophy waiting for it at the final whistle. Red Bull New York has an elimination scenario waiting for it if things go wrong. Same field, very different Sunday moods.

Kickoff is Sunday at 4:30 p.m. ET at GEODIS Park, on Apple TV. Nashville comes in as the Supporters' Shield winner at 21-8-3 (wins-draws-losses) with 71 points and a +43 goal difference, tops in the Eastern Conference by a mile. The Red Bulls are 10th in the East at 11-6-15 with 39 points, level with New York City FC and Toronto.

A Coronation and a Cliff Edge

Nashville clinched the Shield with a 2-0 win at CF Montréal last weekend, and per the club, it will lift the trophy in front of its home fans after Sunday's match, the first time the Boys in Gold have raised silverware at home. Their 2025 U.S. Open Cup was won in Austin. There are records on the table too. Nashville's preview says a win would match the league's all-time points record and preserve an unbeaten home season: 14 wins and two draws in 16 league games at GEODIS Park, with an MLS-record 44 home points already banked.

New York's math is uglier. MLSsoccer.com's Matchday 34 scenarios page lists the Red Bulls as eliminated if they lose at Nashville and Columbus beats D.C. United. Columbus won 3-0 on Saturday. The only other elimination path on that page also needed Orlando to avoid defeat at Charlotte on Saturday, and Orlando lost 4-0, so a draw would send New York to Decision Day still alive. The club says it hosts Atlanta on Saturday, Nov. 7, for that finale. A Red Bulls loss would also open the door for Columbus, and potentially Orlando, to clinch, per the same page.

The Matchup That Decides It

Nashville's front two vs. a Red Bulls back line missing a starter. Sam Surridge has 18 goals in 26 matches. Hany Mukhtar has 17 goals, eight assists and a team-high 101 shots, and he has scored in four of Nashville's last five matches. Cristian Espinoza feeds both of them, with 14 assists. New York's counter is history: the Red Bulls say they have held Nashville scoreless in seven of the nine all-time regular-season meetings. Even August's 1-0 Nashville win at Sports Illustrated Stadium needed a Maxwell Woledzi header in the second minute of stoppage time. Doing it again without defender Dylan Nealis, who is suspended, is a much bigger ask, and goalkeeper Ethan Horvath, already at 104 saves, should be busy.

Julian Hall vs. the best defense in the league. Hall is New York's spark: 12 goals on a team-high 75 shots, and his goal at New England on Wednesday gave him 17 goal contributions, which the club says ties Landon Donovan's 2001 total for fourth-most by a teenager in an MLS regular season. He is walking into a buzzsaw. Nashville's preview says its back line leads the league in goals allowed, goal difference and clean sheets, and the Boys in Gold have conceded two goals in their last five matches. Goalkeeper Brian Schwake has 15 clean sheets; per the club, one more would match Tony Meola's MLS single-season record of 16.

Players to Watch

• Hany Mukhtar, Nashville attacker: 17 goals and eight assists in 32 matches, with a goal in four of his team's last five.
• Brian Schwake, Nashville goalkeeper: 83 saves and a shot at a share of a league record with a shutout.
• Julian Hall, Red Bulls forward: 12 goals in 31 matches, and the club notes he is still a teenager.
• Emil Forsberg, Red Bulls midfielder: nine assists in 29 matches, including the ball that set up Hall's goal at New England. With Donkor out, more of the creative load lands on him.

Team News

The MLS disciplinary summary lists two New York regulars as suspended for this one because of yellow card accumulation: Nealis and midfielder Ronald Donkor. Losing Donkor stings, since he leads the Red Bulls with 10 assists. Justin Che is one caution away from a suspension or fine. Neither club's entry on the league's player availability report had been posted when we checked.

By the Numbers

• DraftKings lists Nashville at -210 on the moneyline, New York at +450 and the draw at +360, with a total of 3.5 goals, via ESPN, as of Saturday.
• Nashville's last five: three wins and two draws, with 11 goals scored. New York's last five: two wins and three losses.
• ESPN's log of the last five meetings has Nashville ahead 2-1-2, and per the Red Bulls, New York leads the all-time regular-season series 3-2-4 (wins-losses-draws) heading into the 10th meeting.
• Per Nashville, the Boys in Gold have held opponents scoreless in eight of their 16 home games and scored four or more six times.

The Pick

The Red Bulls have been a genuine pain for Nashville over the years, and a team fighting for its life can make a coronation awkward. But New York is down its assist leader and a starting defender, and Nashville has been the league's final boss at home all season. Expect the Boys in Gold to want both the party and the records. Mukhtar scores, the back line does its thing, and Schwake ties Meola before the trophy lift.

Our pick: Nashville 2, Red Bulls 0. That result would end New York's playoff hopes.

Odds from DraftKings via ESPN as of Oct. 31. Standings, records and stats from ESPN. Playoff scenarios from MLSsoccer.com, suspensions from the MLS disciplinary summary, and club notes from nashvillesc.com and newyorkredbulls.com.