Inter Miami vs. Revolution Preview: Messi Meets a Red-Hot Revs Team in a Fight for Second

A Revolution team riding four straight wins gets one last regular-season night at Gillette Stadium, and the guest list includes Lionel Messi. Inter Miami has the league's most dangerous attack and a two-game winless skid it would love to end on a big stage. Second place in the East is the prize in the middle.

Kickoff is Sunday at 7 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium, on Apple TV. New England sits second in the Eastern Conference at 18-4-10 (wins-draws-losses) with 58 points. Miami is third at 15-11-6 with 56 points. Only two points separate them, and the Revs' preview calls this the final test before Decision Day.

Why Sunday Matters

New England has already done a lot of the heavy lifting. Per the club, Wednesday's 3-2 win over Red Bull New York secured home-field advantage for Round One of the playoffs, and the Revs have also locked up a spot in the 2027 Concacaf Champions Cup. That win was their 18th, the second-best total in club history, and New England can match its home record of 12 wins with three more points on Sunday. It is also a sendoff night of sorts: defender Andrew Farrell announced on Oct. 26 that he will retire after the season, and he leaves as the club's all-time leader in regular-season appearances (345), per the Revolution.

Miami's motivation is simple. The Herons are two points back of the Revs with the East's No. 2 spot in sight, and they have stumbled lately, losing 2-0 at Red Bull New York and then needing a 90th-minute equalizer from Riquelme Fillipi to draw 2-2 with FC Cincinnati on Wednesday. That was Fillipi's first goal for the club.

Marko Mitrović knows what is coming. "We rely on ourselves, we rely on our team effort, and we know that we have to confront them as a team," the Revs head coach said this week.

The Matchup That Decides It

Messi vs. Matt Turner. Messi leads MLS with 25 goals, adds 14 assists by ESPN's count and has taken 175 shots, by far the most on his team. The Revs' preview says he is on pace for a second straight Golden Boot, although he has been held scoreless in his last two appearances. Turner has been a wall. ESPN credits him with 132 saves, and the club says his total is the second-most among goalkeepers this season and the highest of his career. New England has allowed 44 goals, the third-fewest in the league per the Revs, against a Miami attack that has scored 75 in 32 matches, eight more than any other team, per Miami. Something has to give, and probably more than once given the 3.5-goal total.

Dor Turgeman and Carles Gil vs. a Miami defense that wobbles late. Turgeman has 12 goals and is on a heater, with five in his last four matches, including a brace against New York on Wednesday. Gil has 13 goals and 12 assists and a team-high 1,758 accurate passes. They connected for the opener against the Red Bulls. Miami gave up two goals in a six-minute span late against Cincinnati before rescuing a point, and Rodrigo De Paul, who has 16 assists, will need to win the midfield to keep Gil from finding Turgeman between the lines.

Players to Watch

• Lionel Messi, Inter Miami forward: 25 goals and 14 assists in 29 matches. Per Miami, he is the reigning MVP and Golden Boot winner.
• Rodrigo De Paul, Inter Miami midfielder: 16 assists and a team-high 1,812 accurate passes.
• Dor Turgeman, Revolution forward: 12 goals in 31 matches and the hottest finisher on the field.
• Matt Turner, Revolution goalkeeper: six clean sheets this season, per the club, and the man tasked with stopping 175 shots' worth of Messi.

Turner framed the stretch run the way you would expect from a team on a four-game heater. "I think we've kind of taken every single game down this stretch as a playoff level atmosphere and playoff level intensity," he said this week.

Team News

Neither club's entry on the league's player availability report had been posted when we checked. The MLS disciplinary summary lists Miami's Yannick Bright as one caution away from a suspension or fine. No suspensions are listed for either team.

By the Numbers

• DraftKings lists Miami at +125 on the moneyline, New England at +165 and the draw at +290, with a total of 3.5 goals, via ESPN, as of Saturday. The road team is the slight favorite.
• New England's last five: four wins and one loss, and the Revs have won seven of their last nine, per the club. Miami's last five: three wins, a loss and a draw.
• ESPN's log of the last five meetings has Miami ahead 4-0-1. The latest was a 1-1 draw at Nu Stadium on April 25, with Gil scoring for New England and Germán Berterame equalizing.
• Per Miami, this is the 12th meeting all time, and Miami holds seven wins to New England's three, with one draw.
• Luis Suárez has 16 goals, giving Miami two of the deadliest finishers in the league on the same field.

The Pick

The line says Miami, and the history says Miami. The form says New England. We will side with the hot hand at home: the Revs have the better defense, the better recent run and a goalkeeper sitting on a career-high save total, per his own club. Messi probably gets his, because Messi usually does, but Turgeman keeps cooking.

Our pick: Revolution 2, Inter Miami 1.

Odds from DraftKings via ESPN as of Oct. 31. Standings, records and stats from ESPN. Suspension warnings from the MLS disciplinary summary, quotes and team notes from revolutionsoccer.net, and Miami notes from intermiamicf.com.