Dynamo vs. Timbers Preview: Portland's Playoff Hopes Run Into Houston's Top-Four Push

Sunday night at Providence Park comes with stakes on both benches. Portland walks in on back-to-back wins and still fighting for its playoff life. Houston walks in already qualified, unbeaten in five and hunting a top-four finish that would mean extra home games in Round One.

Kickoff is Sunday at 9:45 p.m. ET at Providence Park, on Apple TV, FS1 and FOX Deportes. Houston is fifth in the Western Conference at 14-9-9 (wins-draws-losses) with 51 points. Portland is 11th at 11-7-14 with 40 points. It is also Native American Heritage Night in Portland, per the Timbers.

Two Very Different Kinds of Pressure

Portland's situation is the messier one. MLSsoccer.com's Matchday 34 scenarios page lists several ways the Timbers can be eliminated Sunday, and two of them still fit Saturday's results. One: Portland loses to Houston, the LA Galaxy beat Austin, Seattle wins or draws at Vancouver and Colorado wins or draws against Chicago. Two: Portland draws, while LA, Seattle and Colorado all win. LA already did its part with a 4-1 win over Austin on Saturday, per the same page. Seattle's game at Vancouver kicks off more than six hours before this one, so the Timbers will know at least part of the picture before the opening whistle. Portland's result also matters to Seattle: the Sounders clinch on Sunday only if they win and Portland fails to.

The Timbers have earned the right to dream a little. They beat Charlotte 3-2 at home on Oct. 24 and then won 3-2 at St. Louis on Wednesday, with Kristoffer Velde scoring twice.

Houston's pressure is the good kind. The Dynamo have already clinched a playoff spot, per the club, and they are unbeaten in their last five matches, with four draws and a 1-0 win at Seattle on Wednesday. The top four teams in the West earn two home games in their best-of-three Round One series, according to LAFC's preview, and Houston sits level on 51 points with fourth-place St. Louis and one behind third-place San Jose, both of whom have played a game more. St. Louis lost 1-0 at home to San Diego on Saturday. Houston also hosts St. Louis on Decision Day, Nov. 7, per the Dynamo, and one more win would tie the club's single-season points record of 54, set in 2024.

The Matchup That Decides It

Kristoffer Velde vs. Jonathan Bond. Velde is Portland's everything: 10 goals, nine assists and a team-high 103 shots, per ESPN. Bond has 88 saves and, per the Dynamo, 12 clean sheets, tying the club's single-season record shared by Tally Hall and Steve Clark. These two have history. In March, Bond saved Velde's penalty in first-half stoppage time before Velde scored later in a 3-2 Houston win.

Guilherme Augusto vs. a Portland back line without Kamal Miller. Guilherme has 16 goals and 10 assists, and the Dynamo say he has been involved in 26 of their 42 league goals, or 61.9 percent. He is only the second player in club history with 10 goals and 10 assists in the same season, per Houston. Portland will be without center back Kamal Miller, who is suspended after a second yellow card in stoppage time at St. Louis. Miller is second on the team with 1,309 accurate passes, so the Timbers lose a defender and a big piece of their buildup. James Pantemis has made 121 saves and will probably need several more.

Players to Watch

• Kristoffer Velde, Timbers attacker: 10 goals and nine assists in 31 matches, with that brace at St. Louis.
• Ariel Lassiter, Timbers attacker: seven goals, including both of Portland's first two goals in the 3-2 win over Charlotte.
• Guilherme Augusto, Dynamo attacker: 16 goals and 10 assists in 30 matches.
• Mateusz Bogusz, Dynamo attacker: eight goals and a team-high 92 shots. His winner in March came in the 15th minute of second-half stoppage time, which the club calls the second-latest goal in MLS history.

Team News

Per the MLS disciplinary summary, Kamal Miller is suspended for Portland after a red card for a second caution, and Vincent Janssen is one caution away from a suspension or fine. Houston's Agustin Bouzat and Lawrence Ennali are also one caution away. Dynamo head coach Ben Olsen returns to the touchline after serving a one-match red card suspension, per the club. Neither club's entry on the league's player availability report had been posted when we checked.

By the Numbers

• DraftKings lists Portland at -130 on the moneyline, Houston at +290 and the draw at +285, with a total of 2.5 goals, via ESPN, as of Saturday.
• ESPN's log of the last five meetings has Houston ahead 3-1-1, capped by that 3-2 Houston win on March 14.
• Houston has avoided defeat in 15 of 18 matches since the World Cup break, per the club.
• Portland's last five: two wins, two draws, one loss. Houston's last five: one win and four draws.
• The Dynamo's 13 clean sheets this season tie the club's single-season record, per Houston.

The Pick

The oddsmakers like Portland at home, and the Timbers will have the louder building and more to play for. But Houston does not lose much, has the best player on the field in Guilherme and gets a Portland defense missing one of its regulars. Expect the Timbers to throw everything forward and Bond to spend the night being annoying about it. This feels like a game that ends level, which might not be enough for Portland, depending on what happened earlier in the day.

Our pick: Timbers 1, Dynamo 1.

Odds from DraftKings via ESPN as of Oct. 31. Standings, records and stats from ESPN. Playoff scenarios from MLSsoccer.com, suspensions from the MLS disciplinary summary, and club notes from houstondynamofc.com, timbers.com and lafc.com.